Final-Logo copy

FireDFS DraftKings 2017 Dr. Dachel’s Week 3 Contrarian Corner

by @mattdachelMD

9/29/17

 


INTRODUCTION

 

Looking back on week 3, my Russell Wilson call was on point as he crushed value with 36.5 points at a measly 0.53% ownership. Russell Wilson was a case of a guy in a decent matchup, but was surrounded by QB’s with similar salaries in more popular matchups. Finding spots like this is key for finding GPP plays that aren’t super risky, other than the risk of the other QB’s in that range significantly outperforming him. Seattle always has the risk of an O-Line fail, but overall I liked the spot he was in.

If you have been following the FireDFS Twitter page, you may have seen a new tool that I developed for identifying where the field is leaning each week. This tool can help find those plays like Wilson last week where he’s in a decent spot, but no one is talking about him. Thanks to the folks at Fanshare Sports, we can see how often players are getting tagged throughout the week by different sources. I compiled that information and cleanly organized it into two tables, one organizing by team and position and the other by salary range and position. These tools are free to use (link placed below), and I’ll update them periodically throughout the week to keep the numbers up-to-date.

FireDFS Ownership Analysis Hub

Now let’s dig into my picks for Week 4…

When constructing your GPP lineups, these plays can be the low-owned guys that help differentiate your lineup from the field. A lot of GPP winning lineups are constructed with mostly solid plays, and then one or two low-owned or low-priced guys that go off. So don’t feel the need to go too crazy when building your lineups or to use all of these picks in every lineup.

 


#1: RB Derrick Henry $5300 – TEN @ HOU

 

A week after Henry was the popular play in a bad matchup and flopped, he gets another tough matchup (on the surface). Houston’s defense has been pretty good at holding runners to modest ypc. But Henry is a freight train, and if he can can keep getting over 10 carries I can see him possibly getting a touchdown, making value, and being very low owned. With Murray being back, this pick has quite a bit of risk, but Tennessee has one of the best run blocking o-lines in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. Houston, subsequently, is below average in adjusted line yards. So I do think that there is a chance for Henry to bounce back, but it is a risky play.

 


#2:  WR Zay Jones $3100 – BUF @ ATL

 

If you want an ultra punt play, here you go. Zay Jones is a starting receiver who has played over 80% of offensive snaps in every single game this year, but has under performed mightily. I’ll give him a break these last two weeks since he played against Carolina and Denver. At this price though, if he catches a touchdown for 1 yard, he already has 2.3x value. He literally only needs to make 1 or 2 plays, and Buffalo will likely have to pass if they want to catch up to ATL. I think he is worth a shot, and I highly doubt many people will even scroll down to find his name, let alone play a guy averaging 2.3 fppg.

 


#3 TE Jermaine Gresham $2800 – ARI vs SFO

 

I don’t know why, but Jermaine Gresham caught my eye early this week when I first looked at pricing. He hasn’t really been producing at a high output, but he has been getting targets. And at 2.8k, I’ll take that. He had 4 targets week 1, and then a whopping 9 targets in week 3 against the Cowboys. The kicker is that he has also seen 2 targets in the redzone in each of those two games. While he hasn’t scored a touchdown yet, he’ll find his way there eventually if he continues to see targets. On top of all that, he gets to face off against San Francisco, in a game where there should be plenty of scoring opportunities for Arizona. With his price, I think he is worth the risk in some of your lineups. He has dealt with some injuries this year, so that might be the biggest risk for him.

 


Week 3 Recap

#1: QB Russell Wilson $6300 – SEA @ TEN  36.5 pts (5.80x) – 0.53%

#2: TE Jason Witten $4500 – DAL @ ARI – 1.30 pts (0.29x) – 10.84%

#3 RB Lamar Miller $5000 – HOU vs NE – 7.30 pts (1.46x) – 1.83%

 


Week 2 Recap

#1: RB Phillip Dorsett $3900 – NE @ NO  10.5 pts (2.69x) – 0.28%

#2: WR Tyreek Hill $6200 – KC vs PHI – 12.9 pts (1.44x) – 27.32%

#3 RB Terrance West $5100 – BAL vs CLE – 12.5 pts (2.45x) – 4.68%

 


Week 1 Recap

#1: RB LeSean McCoy $8200 – BUF vs NYJ  23.9 pts (2.91x) – 11.29%

#2: WR Corey Davis $4000 – TEN vs OAK – 8.9 pts (3.23x) – 0.39%

#3 WR Ted Ginn $4200 – NO @ MIN – 9.8 pts (2.33x) – 6.61%

 


Best of Luck!

Click here to go back to the main FireDFS NFL page.

If you have questions for Matt on this piece, be sure to drop him at line on Band or on Twitter @mattdachelMD.

Be sure to listen to the FireDFS weekly podcast recorded every Tuesday on Soundcloud!

Also – check out THE Supermassive 2017 NFL DFS Preview – covers literally every NFL team!

Recommended Posts